An illustration for St. Pete Times I had to do.
I loved this when it came out last Friday. It’s good to see the artist has a tumblr. You did a great job on this.
The following is not mathematically rigorous, since the events of yesterday evening were contingent upon one another in various ways. But just for fun, let’s put all of them together in sequence:
— The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
— The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
— The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
— The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.
Multiply those four probabilities together, and you get a combined probability of about one chance in 278 million of all these events coming together in quite this way.
When confronted with numbers like these, you have to start to ask a few questions, statistical and existential.
Evan Longoria hits a walk-off home run to clinch the Wild Card playoff spot for the Tampa Bay Rays on the last day of the regular season.
THIS GIF FOREVER.
